Fueling the Future: Biofuels in Shipping
Shipping, an industry responsible for transporting up to 90% of global trade, is under immense pressure to minimize its environmental impact. An increasingly viable solution lies in biofuels, which possess the potential to reduce carbon emissions significantly. Yet, a recent white paper by DNV highlights the supply constraints and intense competition between sectors that complicate the path toward decarbonization.
Biofuels: A Path to Decarbonization
Currently, the production capacity of sustainable biofuels hovers around 11 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per year. By 2030, DNV anticipates that the global production of sustainable biofuels could increase to 400 – 600 Mtoe per year. Although these figures fall slightly below previous estimates from IRENA and the IEA, they abide by stringent sustainability measures outlined in the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive II for responsible biomass production.
Fueling shipping with biofuels, and focusing on energy efficiency measures, would necessitate an annual supply of 250 Mtoe of sustainable biofuels by 2050. In a best-case scenario, this requirement translates to approximately 20-50% of global biofuel production, wherein a supply of 500 to 1,300 Mtoe annually is attainable by 2050.
Overcoming Supply Limitations and Competition
While biofuels demonstrate the flexibility to usher in a new era of decarbonized shipping, challenges regarding production capacity and sector competition persist. Regulatory advancements, such as the EU Emissions Trading System, are increasing the demand for biofuels and biomass across various industries. Biofuel resources are also employed in cooking, water and space heating, and timber and pulp and paper production.
Consequently, the shipping industry faces an uphill battle in securing an ample supply of biofuels to meet its decarbonization targets. DNV recognizes the need for multifaceted solutions to address the shipping sector’s environmental goals, concluding that biofuels cannot be the sole answer to eliminating greenhouse gas emissions.
A Collective Effort for a Greener Future
In response to the surmounting obstacles in the quest for decarbonization, the shipping industry must adopt a collaborative and holistic approach. While biofuels hold promising potential, alternative solutions may include electrification, hydrogen, and ammonia. By optimizing energy efficiency measures and exploring additional sustainable energy sources, the shipping sector can work in unison to combat climate change and achieve its ambitious goal of zero greenhouse gas emissions. The time for transformation has arrived, and the course toward a greener future must navigate many sustainable solutions.
