Attacking Ukraine’s Lifeline
Russia has once again targeted southern Ukraine’s strategic Odesa region, including the vital Danube River port of Izmail, with drone attacks. These strikes have hit the significant infrastructure used to facilitate grain shipments. This onslaught comes amidst the ongoing blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports by Russia. Ukraine’s defense ministry relayed the news of the attack, stating that a grain silo was adversely affected. However, the region’s governor, Oleh Kiper, assures that there have been no casualty reports.
The Grain Chain Under Threat
The ports along the Danube River close to Romania facilitated around 25% of Ukraine’s grain exports before Russia’s withdrawal from an important Black Sea agreement. In the aftermath, these harbors have become crucial nodes of trade, with grain loaded on barges and moved to Romania’s Black Sea port of Constanta. Russia’s consistent bombardment of these ports and grain export facilities began after their withdrawal from the agreement, and this aggressive stance has been maintained, with Russia treating any vessel sailing to these ports as a potential military threat.
International Condemnation
Romanians are growing increasingly concerned by this situation. Romania’s President Klaus Iohannis branded Russia’s persistent assaults on Ukraine’s vital Danube links, right on the periphery of Romania, as unacceptable, going as far as labeling them war crimes. In a social media post, Iohannis expressed worries that this could impair Ukraine’s food export capacity, affecting global food aid channels.
The Rise in Tension and Prices
Since Russia’s departure from the grain agreement, ships intended for Ukraine have primarily anchored close to the coast, being cautious of a possible attack. Despite Russia’s aggressive posturing, some ships managed by Turkish firms have recently resumed sailing operations, venturing directly to Izmail from the Black Sea. However, this optimistic resurgence may be brief, as new drone attacks have spurred a rise in wheat and corn prices, threatening the budding sailing resurgence.
The Impact of the Grain Deal Collapse
The aftermath of Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal has left Ukraine’s grain export trade in a precarious position. According to estimates, Ukraine’s grain exports plummeted by about 40% in July after the deal’s collapse. Ukrainian officials have reported that since Russia’s exit from the agreement, a period of just nine days, Moscow has targeted 26 port facilities and five civilian vessels and has destroyed around 180,000 tonnes of grain. This assault on Ukraine’s lifeline will undoubtedly leave deep reckonings, both in international trade and the global food supply chain.
