A fresh analysis of the international ship order book has unveiled astounding results. Clarksons Research’s statistics display a disproportionate distribution, where a whopping 50% of the global allocation is contracted to merely two shipping sectors – Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and containers.
Variation in Shipping Orderbooks
Expected to be highlighted in Clarksons Research’s upcoming Shipping Review & Outlook publication, these numbers underline the vast fluctuations in order books. Internally, LNG orders now correspond to around 53% of the current fleet. Conversely, tanker orders make up a meager 5% of the existing fleet.
Disheartening Shipyard Data
Additional shipyard data from the publication reveal a disheartening scenario. Even today, the shipyard capacity lags by 35% from its zenith in 2011, and yard slot availability is also limited. The present orderbook ratio stands remarkably high at 3.5 times the output of last year.
Owners of tankers and dry bulkers, eager to initiate fleet replacement programs, face an unwelcome predicament – long waits and inflated prices. The data present another concern; approximately a third of the global merchant fleet, or 31%, have surpassed the age of 15 years. Alongside, 30% of tonnage ranks poorly – falling in the D and E bands of the International Maritime Organization’s Carbon Intensity Indicator ratings.
Expansion of Global Shipyard Scenario Amidst Green Regulations
However, there is a silver lining. After a prolonged era of contraction, the global shipyard landscape finally experiences expansion. This growth comes in light of record-length orderbooks and an increasing acknowledgment of green regulations necessitating fleet replacement.
The present backlog is the longest in history, with 2026 nearly filled up, as shared by Dag Kilen, the research head at Norwegian broker Fearnleys.
Shipyard Capacity Growth Projections
Another piece of data shared by Maritime Strategies International in the recently published 2023 Outlook by class society ABS shows promising signs. Shipyard capacity grew by a modest 1.8%, reaching 67.1m gt last year. The projections anticipate this figure to soar to 69m gt by 2025, hitting a peak of 81m gt in 2030.
Although these estimations are significantly above the current levels, they still fall 26% short of the staggering peak levels seen in 2011. The shipping industry will keenly observe these movements in the coming years, given the increasing emphasis on green regulations and the need for fleet renewal.
