The immense popularity of the latest Splash Special Reports release, ‘Ship Concept 2030’, is credited to its intriguing projections of the naval landscape just seven years from now. Dr. Roar Adland of SSY and Dr. Tristan Smith from the UCL Energy Institute paint a vivid picture of the nautical scope of 2030 spotlighting the intersecting aspects of regulations, fuel types, tech advancements, shipbuilding, and chartering.
Mapping the Regulatory Landscape by 2030
Predicting the visage of the shipping industry requires a speculative probe into the evolution of worldwide regulations. A prime establishing factor in this extrapolation is set by the outcomes of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Marine Environmental Protection Committee 80 meeting. These decorators of the future maritime sphere have set ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets; a 55-61% reduction by 2030, and a significant 86-91% by 2040.
Fuelling the Next Generation of Ships
With the ground rules set and initial achievements realized, the onus is on the stakeholders to unlock innovative efficiency improvements, especially for new ships preparing for a future weaned off fossil fuels. As these factors influence the attractability of diverse fuels, technologies, and operational choices, the IMO might begin strengthening GHG fuel standards, mandate progressively lower GHG intensity fuel usage, or possibly, introduce a global GHG price, rewarding those who opt for zero or near-zero emission fuels.
Setting the Stage for Energy-Efficient Designs
The ensuing influence on ship operations and designs is palpably transformative. The industry will extend its focus on energy efficiency to maximize the outcome of potential fuel savings. Prior to identifying a clear zero-carbon fuel champion, new ships will likely fuse technological adaptability and future-proofing into their designs. Tapping into the potential of wind-assisted propulsion, multi-fuel engines, automated or remotely operated engine rooms, and waste heat recovery practices lays the foundation for a greener future for shipping.
Future Fuel Contender: The Promise of Ammonia
As decades progress, ammonia is paving its way to become the front-runner in the alternative fuels race. While it tickmarks most economic checkboxes, safety concerns related to its usage are yet to be assuaged. Alongside this, the sea changes in bunkering operations due to the need for cheap renewable energy sources and mounting safety precautions could possibly push them further from densely populated areas.
Reinvents of Fleet Designs and Abatement Technology
These considerations may lead to retrofitting existing designs where superstructures of pre-war cargo vessels segregate living quarters from fuel systems. There’s also a call for propulsion and emission-mitigating tech to be in sync with regulatory advancements. The ever-increasing stringency towards global NOx regulations could potentially phase out combustion engines in new ship builds of 2030 and prioritize fuel cells for their efficiency and cooler operations.
Navigating Uncertainties and Opportunities
Looking into the future of shipping is fraught with uncertainties, but in these complexities lies the potential for groundbreaking transformations. If history has anything to teach us, major shifts in energy consumption patterns yield new ship types, freight markets, and lucrative trades, presenting promising opportunities for the ever-evolving global shipping industry. These challenges and possibilities highlight the shifting tides in the wide open seas of the maritime world as we sail towards 2030.
